the refrigerant gas price to continue increase in 2019?
In 2018, the refrigerant Gas been rising all the way, what are the reasons behind it? What will happen to the refrigerant market in 2019?
High-pressure environmental protection policy leads to tight supply of raw materials
Since the first half of 2018, the Refrigerant R22 price has been rising and the price is at a high level. The overall inventory of the R32 market was low, domestic demand and export market demand remained stable, and the inventory of manufacturers increased. The operating load of the R134a production plant remained stable overall. The R410a market has a higher supply, and most of the merchants maintain on-demand purchases. The R125 production enterprise has a mid-level operational load and generally maintains low inventory operations.
A number of companies said that the supply of refrigerants was tight and the market supply was insufficient, mainly because of environmental protection policies, which led to a large number of enterprises having to cut production or stop production.
Why does environmental protection have a greater impact on refrigerant companies? Because of the large amount of fluorine-containing hydrochloric acid produced by the refrigerant during the production process, the by-product hydrochloric acid treatment is difficult, and it is usually sold as a low-end hydrochloric acid to downstream enterprises for digestion. Due to factors such as strengthening environmental protection supervision and supply-side reform, the downstream enterprises are starting to decline. The demand for hydrochloric acid production is insufficient, and the waste acid of the refrigerant enterprise is difficult to handle, resulting in the use of waste acid, and the company is forced to reduce the operating load and cause insufficient supply.
The data shows that the price of fluorite in 2018 has risen sharply by 42.20%. The price at the beginning of the year was 2555 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the year rose sharply to 3633.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 42.20%. The price of fluorite reached a record high at the end of 2018. After years of sluggishness, the fluorine chemical industry finally ushered in a sales season that was in short supply. Take R22 as an example. From 890 tons in 2016, it has climbed to around 23,000.
In 2018, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market was first suppressed and then increased. In the first half of the year, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market continued to decline, but the market price of hydrofluoric acid continued to rise in the second half of the year. On the whole, the price of hydrofluoric acid at the beginning of the year was 12,958.33 yuan / ton, the price at the end of the year was 14,125 yuan / ton, the annual increase was 9.00%, the highest price point in the year appeared at 15,475 yuan / ton on February 10, the lowest price in the year It appeared at 9116.67 yuan/ton on May 18, and the maximum amplitude for the whole year was 41.09%.
At the same time, environmental protection is like a double-edged sword. Some enterprises with large scale, equipment and qualifications are welcoming the spring.
Quota-limited refrigerants in short supply
According to the Montreal Protocol, the second generation of refrigerants will be completely phased out, and different elimination schedules have been established according to developed and developing countries: developed countries began to freeze the consumption base in 1996, giving a 24-year buffer period, The second generation will be completely phased out by 2020; the phase-out process in developing countries is slightly slower than in developed countries. Production and consumption must be frozen in 2013, starting from 2015, giving a 17-year buffer period and completely phased out in 2030. Since 2013, China has implemented a quota system for the consumption and production of second-generation HCFCs refrigerants, from 308,000 tons in 2013 to 274,000 tons in 2015, and will remain around 200,000 tons in 2020, 2030. The year is completely eliminated.
Although the third-generation refrigerant has an ODP value of 0, it has a high GWP value, which will still greatly accelerate global warming and belong to products that will be eliminated. On October 10, 2016, the 28th Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol adopted an amendment to reduce HFCs. The agreement also sets out different phase-out roadmaps based on the economic development of developed and developing countries. China has pledged to gradually reduce HFCs from 2024.
As a Montreal Protocol country, China plays an important role and needs to phase out ODS substances in advance. However, in the past few years, the demand for downstream air-conditioning enterprises has increased. In 2018, the air-conditioning output in the cold year increased by 13.1% year-on-year; the sales volume increased by 13.5% year-on-year; although the growth rate has narrowed considerably compared with the 2017 cold year, it still maintains the double position. The growth rate of the number. From the perspective of household air conditioners, the refrigerants are mainly R22, R32 and R410A. In recent years, R32 has developed rapidly. At present, each of the three products accounts for one-third. This year, due to the shortage of R410A and R32 air-conditioning refrigeration oils, R22 models account for a relatively large proportion. Higher, but R22 is the product that enters the phase-out period. The quota supply, the proportion of R32 and R410A will gradually increase. The third generation of refrigerants was used in large quantities, causing the third generation of products to be extremely tight.
How is the trend of 2019: the refrigerant will still run at a high level
Although refrigerants led the way in 2018, how long will it last? Relevant parties pointed out that in 2019, the environmental protection pressure remains the same, and the prices of raw materials such as fluorite and hydrofluoric acid will continue to be high. In addition, through environmental protection in recent years, non-compliant production enterprises have been shut down or rectified, leaving behind the production of enterprises will be more standardized and stable. Moreover, R22 belongs to HCFC-type refrigerants. With the elimination process, the quota will be reduced by 25% by 2020. However, the HFC-based refrigerant phase-out policy will be the base year from 2020 to 2022. In 2019, the domestic R32 and R125 capacity will be Doubled.